LINKS-ДАЙДЖЕСТ 02 марта 2012 г.
Chart: EUR on its way to match Dec LTRO Move?
Кэтти Линн ждет возвращения EURO/USD к 1,30
Since this week’s LTRO operation, the EUR/USD has fallen 3 straight trading days by as much 280 pips. Based on this price action, it looks like the pair is on its way to “mirroring” the post December LTRO move. It wouldn’t take much for this to occur - all the EUR/USD needs to do is fall another 180 pips which would STILL put it above the psychologically significant 1.30 level. Back in December, the selloff in the EUR/USD felt so much deeper because it triggered a break below 1.30 and a move to an 18 month low. I’m betting on it happening again. What about you?
USDJPY Chart Update: Another Reason for 85
Кэтти Линн приводит дополнительные аргументы (технического плана), почему USD/JPY может дойти до 85
What Carry Trade? Euro Banks Deposit Entire LTRO 2 At ECB, Bring Total To Over $1 Trillion
Депозиты ЕЦБ увеличились до рекордных 777 млрд. EURO. ПО оценкам Zero Hedge чистый приток ликвидности от LTRO-2 составил 311 млрд. EURO – это почти ровно столько, насколько увеоичились депозиты ЕЦБ. Значит все новые деньги там.
ИМХО ZH занизил существенно приток новых денег.
When explaining the practical effect of Wednesday's second and certainly not last LTRO, we said that "when it comes to explaining why Europe's banks are not only not deleveraging but increasing leverage while paying an incremental 75 bps on up to €700 billion in deposits soon to be handed over to the ECB, one needs all the favorable spin one can muster." We also estimated that net of rollovers and other tangents, the true net liquidity add would be €311 billion and "the final number by which the ECB's deposit account will increase will be about €210 billion less than the overhead number" of €529.5 billion. Sure enough, as of this morning, which takes into account the full settlement and allocation of the second LTRO cash installment, the ECB's deposit facility has soared by precisely as expected, rising by €302 billion overnight to an all time record of €777 billion, or just over $1 trillion. In other words, Europe has now successfully managed to fool everyone that it is executing the carry trade, when it is doing nothing like that at all, and it continues to park record amounts of cash with the ECB on which not only is it not earning a carry spread, but it is losing 75 basis points as it is paid a meager 0.25% for a deposit that cost it 1.00%. Said otherwise, instead of building a cash position and retaining earnings to fund €3 trillion in debt rollovers over the next three years (by the time the LTRO matures incidentally - good luck paying down that additional €1 trillion, which makes it a total of €4 trillion in maturing debt), roughly 800 European banks will bleed by €6 billion in the next year just to store their cash with the ECB. So much for promises of the carry trade. And we certainly commiserate with all those who bought European bonds on the assumption that they were frontrunning banks who are buying up BTPs, Bonos and what not. They were only frontrunning themselves.
статья по поводу падения золота 29 февраля на Goldcore в русском переводе
LTRO names n' numbers (so far) [updated]
А это LTRO-2 в именах
