Похоже, все больше шансов за то, что США лишиться своего рейтинга ААА. Притом случиться это независимо от того, поднимут лимит госдолга в ближайшее время или нет.
Такие прогнозы все чаще звучат от разных инвестиционных домов. Об этом уже заявили и Мохаммед Эль-Эриан из PIMCO, и Джим Роджерс.
Amitabh Arora из Citigroup наконец свел в табличку все потенциальные варианты сделок по госдолгу
Далее идет четкий комментарий по каждому плану:
- Extend (and Re-Visit) — Given the late date and lack of clear consensus, there is an increased probability that a temporary fix will take place. This could take the form of a very small increase ($100-250 billion) which would merely serve as a stop-gap to allow current negotiations to continue. This is a likely scenario only if it appears that a meaningfully break-through is at hand, but the time to get it through the political process would not meet the default deadline. This could also take the form of a larger increase ($1 trillion) that would allow negotiations to continue into 2012. This seems like a less likely outcome. The short-term version would likely avert a sovereign downgrade (assuming a large deal followed) while the longer-term version would likely result in a downgrade to double-A.
- McConnell Plan — This is the plan that no one really likes, but is politically expedient. It solves the issue of raising the debt ceiling, gives politicians cover to not raise the debt ceiling and accomplishes very little on the long-term fiscal issue. The plan would raise the debt ceiling by a total of $2.5 trillion over two years unless a two-thirds majority revoked the increase. This is $300 billion cut relative to baseline forecasts that would need to be resolved by the President through spending cuts and with tax increases. It seems very likely this would result in a downgrade of the US sovereign to double-A.
- ‘Gang of Six’ Plan — This is the most plausible grand plan available. It would reduce the deficit by just under $4 trillion over 10 years — likely enough to delay a downgrade of the US sovereign. Specific details of the plan are thin, but the plan appears to relay on about 75% on spending cuts and 25% on increased revenues. The trick it has is that it fixes the AMT, which allows it to increase taxes relative to the plausible baseline scenario while cutting taxes relative to the CBO baseline scenario. This trick gives it some hope to get through the Republican House that has pledged no new taxes. However, the tax increases will include reductions in mortgage interest and charitable contribution deductions that make that hope very low.
- Cut, Cap and Balance — This plan requires that the deficit be cut in half next year, federal spending to be limited to 18% of GDP and for Congress to pass a Balance Budget amendment to the Constitution. Given the drastic cuts involved in the plan it would certainly allow the United States’ triple-A sovereign rating to be maintained. This plan passed the House of Representatives on Wednesday, but is very unlikely to pass the Senate and the President has stated that he will veto this bill if it is able to pass the Senate.
- Default — Perhaps even more unlikely than the Cut, Cap and Balance is that no plan at all is reached prior to either a default on US Treasuries or a default on other US spending obligations. Obviously this event would lead to a downgrade of the US sovereign risk below triple-A. The rating agencies have differed on their guidance with Moody’s suggesting ‘Aa’ based on expectation of it being a shortlived event, S&P suggesting ‘SD’ or selective default and Fitch suggesting ‘B+’.
В тексте я выделил фразы, которые описывают, как тот или иной вариант повлияют на рейтинг США
Ниболее вероятным Amitabh Arora из Citigroup видится план Gang of Six (группы шести)
Исходя из вероятности каждого из этих планов мы полагаем, - пишет Amitabh Arora, что вероятность понижения суверенного рейтинга США относительно велика. Еще раз хочу подчеркнуть, что вероятность такого события основывается на долгосрочных бюджетных проблемах, а не на прорыве потолка госдолга.
В то время, как мы видим очень маленькие шансы дефолта и значительного снижения суверенного рейтинга США – мы видим более, чем 50% вероятность, что сделки по увеличению потолка госдолга будет недостаточно для того, чтобы предотвратить снижение рейтинга США к АА в 2011 году.
