LINKS-ДАЙДЖЕСТ 14 марта 2012 г.
Рост цен в еврозоне - 0,3%, промпроизводства - 0,2%
Цзябао: юань достиг сбалансированного уровня
Дефицит текущего счета США резко увеличился
S&P повышает прогноз роста экономики Китая
Важные события в Китае
Восток и Запад разошлись в оценках Китая
Цзябао опасается повторения "культурной революции"
Во время Всекитайского собрания народных представителей премьер Госсовета Вэнь Цзябао всенародно объявил о необходимости реформы партийного и государственного руководства. Без этого бессмысленны экономические реформы.
Кризис в китайском руководстве
В ожидании отставки глава китайского правительства подвел итоги своей деятельности и предрек дальнейшее замедление экономики.
Комментируя обменный курс юаня, Цзябао пообещал постепенно расширять коридор его колебаний. Хотя надобности в этом уже почти нет
..."С тех пор как в 2005 году была запущена реформа курсообразования, юань укрепился к доллару на 30%. Можно сказать, что реальный курс юаня достиг сбалансированного уровня," - считает Вэнь Цзябао.
В целом выступление председателя Госсовета КНР выглядит пессимистично. Он много извинялся за ошибки руководства, говорил о неудачах правительства.
Греция официально одобрила план помощи
Великобритания выпустит 100-летние облигации
И особо я хотел бы выделить следующую статью:
Шлезингер: у ЕЦБ нет возможности для маневра
Бывший глава ЦБ Германии отвечает на вопросы:
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англоязычные
MOODY'S: Corporations Now Hold $1.24 TRILLION In Cash
В настоящий момент корпорации держат в кэше порядка 1,24 трлн. долларов
REPORT: The US Used Russia To Issue An Ultimatum On Military Action To Iran
Америка использовала Россию для передачи ультиматума Ирану
ART CASHIN: A Power Struggle May Be Brewing In China And The Markets Aren't Ready For It
Про политическое противостояние в Китае
From this morning's Cashin's Comments:
China Speech And A Word Of Warning - Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao gave a speech yesterday and the Shanghai stock market got knocked for a loop (down 340 Dow equivalent points). The media feels that was due to his warning about housing. That may be but another part of the speech caught my eye.
Wen warned that major political change is needed lest the nation fall victim to another “cultural revolution”. Was this a slightly veiled reference to the recent actions and statements of that other Chinese leader, Party Leader Bo Xilai? We’ll try to do some research on that as its implications could be enormous. A power struggle in China is clearly not priced into world markets.
JP MORGAN: CHINA'S ECONOMY IS EXPERIENCING A HARD LANDING
JPM считает, что китайская экономика столкнется с жестким приземлением
One of the hottest and most important debates about the global economy is whether China's slowing economy would experience a hard or soft landing.
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Here Is Why The Fed Will Have To Do At Least Another $3.6 Trillion In Quantitative Easing
Здесь ответ на вопрос – почему Феду необходимо еще по меньшей мере 3,6 трлн. долларов количественного смягчения.
Guest Post: Money from Nothing - A Primer on Fake Wealth Creation and its Implications (Part 2)
Guest Post: Money from Nothing - A Primer On Fake Wealth Creation And Its Implications (Part 1)
Guest Post: The Big Squeeze, Part 2:
Abused Fundamentals And Fake Markets: How They Play Out
Серия статей про кредитную экспансию
Listen Up Muppets: Goldman Wants You To Sell TYM2 - Is The Bond Sell Off Over?
Голдман считает, что продажи американских облигаций связаны с последним заявлением ФОМС и призывает продавать 10-year US Treasuries.
Last night’s FOMC statement ‘marked-to-market’ the committee’s assessment of US economic conditions, which continue to gradually improve. Attention now turns to the minutes of yesterday’s policy meeting, which may reveal whether easing options were contemplated after the expiration of ‘Operation Twist’. US Treasuries sold off yesterday, and are now breaking above the yield range in place for many weeks. The 10-year US-Germany differential, now at 40bp, is at the widest level since last November. A wider spread is in line with our valuation metrics. But the level of intermediate yields remains about 25-50bp too low on both sides of the Atlantic. Using 10-year bond futures (TYM2), we would recommend short at 129-17 for a target of 126-00 and tight stops on a close above 131-16.
ИМХО это развод со стороны GS.
30 Year Prices At Highest Yield Since August 2011
Аукцион 30-year US bonds: самая высокая ставка доходности с августа 2011г. – через несколько дней после понижения рейтинга США.
As has been noted all this week, starting with Monday's 3 Year auction which printed at the highest yield in 5 months, the $12 billion 30 Year Bond did not surprise, and at a yield of 3.381%, just inside of the When Issued 3.385%, it priced at the highest yield since August 2011, or just days after the US downgrade. The Bid To Cover was 2.70, on top of the TTM average of 2.68. Take downs were a carbon copy of February, coming at 14.7%, 29.0% and 56.3% for Directs, Indirect and, of course, Dealers. Does the yield have a ways to go? Oh yes - back in February 2011 the 30 Year priced at 4.75%, and then the slow steady decline commenced. What happens next? Will the US need another downgrade for yields to paradoxically slide? Or will the Fed truly leave the UST curve untouched by phasing out its market subsidization? Hardly: as a reminder, here is where we stand: $1 trillion in bond issuance in the next 10 months, and $100 billion in bond sales by China in December (with the latest TIC data pending). Forget stocks, and keep your eyes glued to the bond market. Things are starting to get interesting, especially for the Fed whose DV01 of $2Bn means that every basis point rise in yields means less P and more L.
Что-то странное происходит на рынке бондов. Доллар укрепляется – при этом начинается какое-то повальное бегство из трежерей.
An Alternative View On Recent Treasury Weakness
Альтернативный взгляд на недавнюю слабость в трежерях
The last few weeks have seen massive, record-breaking amounts of investment grade USD-based corporate bond issuance, at the same time dealer inventories for corporate bonds are at multi-year lows and Treasury holdings at all-time-highs. In general to underwrite the massive corporate bond issuance, dealers will place rate-locks (or short Treasuries/Swaps in various ways) to control the yield and sell the idea of the 'spread' to clients (which is where most real-money buyers will be focused on value. We suggest that the almost unprecedented corporate issuance and therefore need for rate-locks has provided a significant offer for Treasuries that the dealers (who are loaded) and the Fed (who is only minimally involved) was unable to suppress. The key question, going forward, is whether the expectations of a much lower issuance calendar will relieve this marginal offer in Treasuries and allow rates to revert back down?
"Spain Is Fine" - February Spanish Bank Borrowings From ECB Rise To Record
В феврале заимствования испанских банков у ЕЦБ достигли рекорда
As Banco de Espana just released earlier today, Spanish banks have borrowed a record €152 billion in February, a €19 billion increase from January. At least we now know what the capital shortfall was in Spain since pre-LTRO days, when total borrowings were €98 billion
Ex-Goldman Exec Comes Clean On How A "Toxic And Destructive" Goldman "Rips Its Clients Off"
Экс-голдманист критикует нравы, царящие в компании.
How did we get here? The firm changed the way it thought about leadership. Leadership used to be about ideas, setting an example and doing the right thing. Today, if you make enough money for the firm (and are not currently an ax murderer) you will be promoted into a position of influence.
What are three quick ways to become a leader? a) Execute on the firm’s “axes,” which is Goldman-speak for persuading your clients to invest in the stocks or other products that we are trying to get rid of because they are not seen as having a lot of potential profit. b) “Hunt Elephants.” In English: get your clients — some of whom are sophisticated, and some of whom aren’t — to trade whatever will bring the biggest profit to Goldman. Call me old-fashioned, but I don’t like selling my clients a product that is wrong for them. c) Find yourself sitting in a seat where your job is to trade any illiquid, opaque product with a three-letter acronym.
It's Official - Apple Is Now Bigger Than The Entire US Retail Sector
Apple теперь больше, чем весь розничный сектор США
A company whose value is dependent on the continued success of two key products, now has a larger market capitalization (at $542 billion), than the entire US retail sector (as defined by the S&P 500). Little to add here.
On This Day In History.... Gas Prices Have Never Been Higher
Исторический день: цены на бензин достигли рекорда
Presented with little comment except to remind all those newly refreshed consumers that for every penny rise in pump prices, more than $1bn is added to the hoousehold spending bill (assuming driving habits are unaffected - which brings its own set of unintended consequential events). And in the past month alone, gas prices have increased by precisely 30 cents.
Will JPY Devaluation Disrupt Global Growth?
Способна ли девальвация йены разрушить глобальный рост?
Seemingly hidden from the mainstream media's attention, we note that the last six weeks has seen the second largest devaluation in the JPY since Sakakibara's days in the mid-90s. As Sean Corrigan (of Diapason Commodities) notes, this has to be putting pressure on Japan's Asian neighbors - not least the engine of the world China. Furthermore, JPY on a trade-weighted basis has cracked through all the major moving averages and sits critically at its post-crisis up-trendline. As we noted last night, perhaps Japan really is toppling over the Keynesian endpoint event horizon. JPY weakness and the carry trade may not be quite as hand in hand if rates start to reflect any behavioral biases, inflation (or more critically hyperinflation) concerns any time soon.
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Forex.com ожидает движения USD/JPY в район 90.
The dollar continued to gain ground against the yen during the session, with the pair rising to its highest level since April 2011. The divergence we expect to see between the BoJ and Fed, as the BoJ continues down the loosening path and the Fed becomes increasingly optimistic, may provide a floor for USD/JPY, thus the path may be clear for a push towards 90.
Не могу с ними согласиться. Считаю, что скорее прав Джон Тейлор.
ФОМС – ничего нового
Вот заявление с пометками изменений по сравнению с прошлым.
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