LINKS-ДАЙДЖЕСТ 10 марта 2012 г.
ISDA объявила греческий своп кредитным событием
ЕЦБ отодвинул кульминацию долгового кризиса
Рейтинговые агентства - приспешники дяди Сэма
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теперь англоязычные
Man and machine The economic ideas of the world’s most successful hedge-fund boss
“THE most beautiful deleveraging yet seen” is how Ray Dalio describes what is now going on in America’s economy.
Хороший валютный обзор от Forex.com
The Black Swan NO ONE is Talking About: Germany’s “Plan B”
Выборы во Франции и Греции могут изменить расстановку сил таким образом, что вопрос о Греции опять встанет ребром.
Put another way, German leaders, particularly Merkel and Schäuble see the writing on the political wall: that both Greece and France are likely going to find themselves with new leadership that is pro-socialism, anti-austerity measures, and most certainly anti-taking orders from Germany.
Германия между тем продолжает подготовку к плану «B»: неконтролируемому и полномасштабному дефолту.
Germany is aware of this, as well as the fact that there is no way German voters will go for bailouts of any more of the PIIGS (even if Germany, the IMF, and ECB had the funds to bail out Spain or Italy... which they don’t). This is why Germany has decided to play hardball with Greece. It’s also why Germany has put into place a contingency plan that would permit it to leave the Euro if it had to.
Германия создала свой национальный стабилизационный фонд: SoFFin.
What is Germany’s “Plan B”? Leave the Euro but remain in the EU (maybe).
If you don’t believe me, consider that in the last six months Germany has:
- Passed legislation that would permit Germany to leave the Euro but remain a part of the EU
- Reinstated its Special Financial Market Stabilization Funds, (or SoFFin for short)
It is the second of these items (the reinstatement of the SoFFIN) that the western media and 99% of investors have missed entirely. In short, Germany has given the SoFFIN:
- €400 billion to be used as guarantees for German banks.
- €80 billion to be used for the recapitalization of German banks
- Legislation that would permit German banks to dump their euro-zone government bonds if needed.
That is correct. Any German bank, if it so chooses, will have the option to dump its EU sovereign bonds into the SoFFIN during a Crisis.
In simple terms, Germany has put a €480 billion firewall around its banks. It can literally pull out of the Euro any time it wants to. The question is whether its current EU power grab is successful. If it isn’t... and other EU nations refuse to play ball (like Spain has started to) then Germany could very easily leave the Euro.
This is the black swan no one is talking about. If Germany bails on the Euro, the EU will collapse. It will be Lehman Brothers times 10 if not worse.
Самый большой торговый дефицит Китая с 1989 года. Вопрос: Китай сразу конвертирует свою выручку в нефть?
