LINKS-ДАЙДЖЕСТ 03-04 марта 2012 г.
Это были выходные, поэтому материалов мало.
Moody’s снизило рейтинг Греции до минимального уровня с Са до С
Британские банки заняли у ЕЦБ 37 млрд евро
European Banks Now Face Huge Margin Calls As ECB Collateral Crumbles
случае уменьшения стоимости банки должны увеличивать залог под взятые кредиты.
This 'Deposits Related to Margin Calls' line item on the ECB's balance sheet will likely now become the most-watched 'indicator' of stress as we note the dramatic acceleration from an average well under EUR200 million to well over EUR17 billion since the LTRO began. The rapid deterioration in collateral asset quality is extremely worrisome (GGBs? European financial sub debt? Papandreou's Kebab Shop unsecured 2nd lien notes?) as it forces the banks who took the collateralized loans to come up with more 'precious' cash or assets (unwind existing profitable trades such as sovereign carry, delever further by selling assets, or subordinate more of the capital structure via pledging more assets - to cover these collateral shortfalls) or pay-down the loan in part. This could very quickly become a self-fulfilling vicious circle - especially given the leverage in both the ECB and the already-insolvent banks that took LTRO loans that now back the main Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese sovereign bond markets.
Теперь строка «'Deposits Related to Margin Calls' в еженедельном стейтменте приобретает особое значение.
What should also start to worry the Germans is the fact a 37x levered hedge-fund central bank with EUR3 trillion balance sheet that has extended credit in a 'risk-managed' approach on what appears to be an ever dwindling supply of performing collateral is starting to see dramatic 'gaps' in its asset-liability exposure (but rest assured Bernanke told us that our FX Swaps are safe as houses).
А каковы перспективы LTRO3?
One last point should be noted - the hopes of an LTRO3 or some such are surely now out of the window as clearly banks have run dry of any and all reasonable collateral or can the sovereign bonds purchased using LTRO1 and LTRO2 funds be lodged once again in a rehypothecated miasma circling the drain?
Очень проблематично, в т.ч. и потому, что банки уже исчерпали все стоящие залоги
Guest Post: The Exter Pyramid And The Renminbi
Автор статьи сравнивает две самых крупных в мире денежные пирамиды: США и Китая.
Уменьшение доли золота в последнее время автор рассматривает как потенциал для продолжения роста и причину бычьего рынка в золоте.
ZH делает интересное дополнение: оказывается Китай способен секретно увеличивать запасы золота и других commodities.
Oops: ECB Says Greek PSI Participation May Fall Short, As Troika Expects Third Greek Bailout
My Big Fat Greek Restructuring - The Week Ahead
Большая статья Peter Tchir о перипетиях переговоров по греческому долгу.
The situation in Greece should create some big headlines this week. The bond exchange “invitation” is set to expire at 3pm EST on Thursday March 8th. This is the so-called Private Sector Involvement or PSI. Greece has other steps to take during the week, and ultimately the Troika will determine how to proceed with the bailout, but not until the results of the PSI are known.
David Rosenberg: "The Best Currency May Be Physical Gold"
What a no-brainer to suck at the teat and go long some very transparent and liquid debt that matures in less than three years (how can there not be a rally in global risk assets when Europe's central bank pumps a combined $1.3 trillion into the financial system? Not to mention a second bailout for Greece we were told a year ago there wouldn't be any!). This must be the safest carry trade ever, or at least that is the perception (1% LTRO loan for a 5% Italian bond or a 2% short-term note even ... back up the truck!). Put up a tiny bit of capital and lever it up. It is incredible that we live in a world where the difference between going out of business as a bank and prosperity lies with cheap money being accessed from the central bank balance sheet.
Если LTRO-1 еще можно рассматривать как способ уберечь систему от разрушения, то LTRO-2 означает переход от роли кредитора в последней инстанции к роли «кредитора по первому вызову», как это назвал Peter Tchir.
At least LTRO1 was dealing with a possible breakdown of the system since the banks weren't lending to each other. LTRO2 is clearly an overt policy move from the traditional central bank role of being the lender of last resort (which even LTRO1 was to a point) to being the lender of first call, as Peter Tchir aptly puts it. There is no such thing as a free lunch, but there is such a thing as the law of unintended consequences. I can't say I know for sure what they will be or when they will show up, but there are going to be repercussions from a central bank morphing from a bona fide lender of last resort to a gift-giving institution.
ЕЦБ движется от роли традиционного центрального банка к роли учреждения, осуществляющего квазибюджетную политику.
Somehow a long gold, short euro barbell looks really good here. Bernanke, after all, now seems reluctant to embark on QE3 barring a renewed economic turndown while the ECB is moving further away from the role of a traditional central bank to take on the role of quasi fiscal policymaking, The German central bank, after all, is responsible for 25% of any losses that would ever be incurred by the massive Draghi balance sheet expansion. Why would anyone want to be long a currency representing a region with a 10.7% unemployment rate, rising inflation rates and free money? Mind you — the same can be said for the US (where U-6 jobless rate is even higher), which is why the best currency may be physical gold (or the producers that trade very inexpensively here and you pickup some leverage).
Дэвид Розенберг предлагает входить в лонг по золоту и шорт по EURO.
Presenting The Truth Behind America's Fiscal And Employment Picture
