LINKS-ДАЙДЖЕСТ 21.02.2012 (продолжение)
Большинство материалов посвящено сделке по Греции
David Rosenberg On Taxation-Shock-Syndrome
Налоговый климат в Америке в 2013 году обещает быть очень сложным.
As he notes the radically changed taxation climate in 2013 and beyond will have an impact on all economic participants as they will probably opt to bolster their cash reserves in the second half of the year in preparation for the proverbial rainy day.
As US Debt To GDP Passes 101%, The Global Debt Ponzi Enters Its Final Stages
Здесь два интересных графика:
As the chart below, which highlights some of the biggest and most notable holders of US paper, shows, in the period December 31, 2010 to December 31, 2011, there have been two very distinct shifts: those who are going all in on the ponzi, and those who are gradually shifting away from the greenback, and just as quietly, and without much fanfare of their own, reinvesting their trade surplus in something distinctly other than US paper. The latter two: China and Russia, as we have noted in the past. Yet these are more than offset by... well, we'll let the readers look at the chart below based on TIC data and figure out it.
Quiet 2 Year Bond Auction Adds $35 Billion To Total Debt, US Debt To GDP Now At 101%
Про состоявшийся аукцион по размещению 2-year US notes: ничего примечательного
Tim Geithner just sold $32 billion in 2 year bonds at a rate of 0.31%, right on top of the When Issued, which was the highest yield since August 2011, yet nothing too dramatic. Since this is the short end of the curve where Bernanke is fully in control, the range in recent auctions has fluctuated from 0.222% to 0.31%. Yet as noted last week, the biggest "beneficiary" of short-end purchases have been Primary Dealers - are they starting to choke on thier holdings? And who will they sell to this paper which yields absolutely nothing. The auction internals were a snooze - the Bid To Cover was 3.54, a drop from January's 3.75, but higher than the TTM average of 3.42. Dealers took down 54.66%, in line with the average, Indirects left holding 35.84%, and 9.5% for the direct. Overall, nothing to write home about, and the bottom line is that the US just added another $32 billion to its net debt of $15.413 trillion, or a new record high debt/GDP ratio of 101%. It is going much higher.
Presenting Morgan Stanley's Commodity Thermometer
Представляем Commodity Thermometer от Morgan Stanley
По сути это прогноз на 2012 год.
...here is a simple way to gauge relative commodity strengths and weakness courtesy of Morgan Stanley's "Commodity Thermometer" which shows what products MS is bullish and bearish on, and why.
Это интересно! Если плохо видно - можно пройти по ссылке!
Here Is Why The Dow Just Passed 13,000
Wondering why the DJIA just passed 13K again? Wonder no more: as the chart below shows it is entirely due to the nearly $7 trillion pumped by global central banks into the world stock markets just in the past 4 years. As Sean Corrigan from Diapason notes, the aggregate global central bank balance sheet has doubled in four years, after doubling in the 5 years before that.
Этот рисунок стоит привести
Общий баланс крупнейших ЦБ мира
ECB Preparing To Close Liquidity Spigot?
ЕЦб готовится завернуть краник с ликвидностью?
The European Central Bank wants its second offer of cheap ultra-long funds next week to be its last, putting the onus back on governments to secure the euro zone's longer-term future.
Powerful members of the central bank's 23-man governing council are privately hoping demand at the February 29 auction will fall well short of the 1 trillion euros some expect, backing their view that it should be the last.
Central bank sources say they are worried that banks will become too reliant on ECB funds, removing the incentive to restart lending between themselves.
Given the expectations priced into stocks (and remember credit has rallied but has recently started to weaken notably), any more hints by the ECB that LTRO 2 will be the last and that the liquidity spout is being shut down for now - leaving governments more responsible for growth - will not be taken well by the market.
The Eurogroup Statement - Some Thoughts And Questions
Заявление Еврогруппы: некоторые мысли и вопросы от Peter Tchir
Second Greek Re-Bailout: Terms, Conditions And Next Steps
Второй план помощи Греции: сроки, условия и ближайшие шаги
Successful PSI operation a necessary condition for a success of the program: now this is an issue, since the PSI will almost certainly fail and CACs will have to be enforced which bring up our question - is the usage of CACs in the "bailout" a Material Adverse Change clause, and is thus the loophole for collapsing the deal altogether?
Ближайшие шаги
- German parliament will seek to approve deal Feb. 27
- Finland expects to discuss bailout in week of March 12
- Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager has mooted possibility of waiting until after Greek elections (expected April 8), according to Rabobank
Резюме от Голдмана по поводу сделки по Греции
Увеличилась вероятность срабатывания CDS и условий CAC: это привдет к усилению волатильности
Позитивные моменты
- Progress on Greek PSI: Relative to the tensions last week, progress has been made towards a substantial reduction of Greek debt through the PSI (estimated at EUR107bn, or 50% of 2011 GDP, will be pardoned), and a mutualisation of the remaining portion on the Euro area’s official sector’s balance sheet. As we have noted in the past, after the liability management exercise, the share of Greek liabilities still in private hands will be substantially reduced (and estimated to be roughly 25% by end-2014, including the part relating to the EFSF guarantee on new Greek debt).
- Reduced risk of disorderly default: The introduction of a segregated account in which each quarter’s debt service will be paid in advance, together with a national law giving priority to debt servicing payments, should reduce the risk of a disorderly default and thus the systemic relevance of Greece.
Негативные моменты
- Growth concerns: In its communiqué, the Euro group insists that the agreement is conditional on Greece fully implementing a revised adjustment program (official details of which, including crucial assumptions on expected nominal growth, are not yet available). To this end, surveillance by the ECB/EU/IMF ‘troika’ is strengthened. But with ongoing economic duress and the upcoming general elections, uncertainty remains around how fast the country will be able to bring its non-interest deficit (estimated at 2.5% of GDP in 2011) into surplus of at least 1.5% of GDP. And the slow progress so far in delivering politically unpopular structural reforms and privatizations are not reassuring. This may lead to further frictions with EMU partners, leaving the risk of Greece's EMU exit in place.
- Increased likelihood of CDS: Moreover, higher losses inflicted on the private sector, involving the likely activation of CACs and the triggering of CDS, represent sources of near-term volatility.
Здесь также довольно подробно приводятся подробности участия официального и частного сектора
Summarizing The Open Questions Surrounding The Second Greek Bailout
Суммируя оставшиеся без ответа вопросы относительно сделки по Греции
Meanwhile, China Moves From Currency Wars To Trade Wars
Между тем Китай переходит от валютных войн к торговым войнам
China just escalated currency wars into outright trade wars. Because as China Daily reports, "Chinese exports are set to get a tax boost." Translated: even as China pushes the CNY higher in infinitesimal and irrelevant increments to appease US Congress, it has just taken out the trade stimulus bazooka. Why? "Export tax rebates will be increased this year in response to an export decline triggered by the European debt crisis. The move, which Commerce Ministry officials said will be implemented when the time is appropriate, will be the first increase since 2009." Still think Europe is fixed? China's answer: nope.
