Китай значительно смягчил монетарную политику в марте
1) Увеличилось кредитование банками
2) Сократился объем денег на бюджетных счетах
3) Значительно увеличились покупки иностранной валюты на юань (не с этим ли был связан восходящий тренд в евро и бурный рост австралийца во второй половине марта
Голдман пишет:
1) In terms of bank lending, because the controls on bank lending were very effective in February, the actual amount of lending was probably below what was intended by policy makers, which highlights the fact that although monetary authorities have a significant level of influence on bank lending, the control is not perfect. This lower-than-expected amount of lending in February probably prompted policy makers to tolerate a higher level of lending in March. The amount of lending in 1Q2011 of Rmb2.24 trillion might have been in line with their overall expectations set at the beginning of the year, but this nevertheless implied an incremental loosening from February to March.
2) The level of fiscal deposits fell by Rmb231 billion in March, after rising by Rmb338 billion in February 2011. This is much larger than the Rmb33 billion fall in March 2010, which contributed to an increase in M2 as these deposits are excluded from M2. We do not yet know if this larger-than-usual fall was contributed by a fall in government revenue or increase in expenditure as the Ministry of Finance has not released March fiscal data. Both causes are possible because i) part of the reason for the strong government revenue growth in January-February 2011 was the collection of overdue 2010 taxes which was one off; and ii) expenditure growth might had been slow in the first two months of the year due to the difficulties in allocating funds due to the slow start of certain investment projects which may include but not only restricted to social housing projects which have been a key focus of government financing.
3) The amount of CNY used for FX purchases increased to around Rmb400 billion, much higher than the Rmb270 billion in March 2010 and Rmb214 billion in February 2011. The disappearance of the trade deficit in March was one of the reasons but its magnitude is not large enough to explain the rise in FX positions. Other capital flows might have increased after CNY appreciation picked up its pace in the second half of March as reflected in higher expectations for appreciation in the NDF market.
This loosening of monetary conditions tend to boost domestic demand growth which is likely to raise concerns about near-term inflation pressures amid continued strength in exports growth (the latter has maintained sequential growth of 40%+ qoq ann. in 1Q2011). While 1Q2011 overall monetary conditions are still tighter than they were in 4Q2010, we believe further tightening measures should and will be implemented in 2Q2011. The State Council meeting on Wednesday made it clear that the government is still putting control of inflation as the policy priority and, equally importantly, specifically emphasised the importance of using monetary policy tools to achieve that goal which gives us the confidence that inflation will be kept under control. We continue to expect further hikes to interest rates, the reserve requirement ratio, continued relatively rapid appreciation of the currency and quantitative controls to be used in the coming months until there are clearer signs of softening inflation.
Голдман считает, что тем не менее в первом квартале 2011 года условия были более жесткие, чем в 4-м квартале прошлого года, а во втором квартале ужесточение их продолжится. Контроль над инфляцией остается главной задачей.
Тем не менее цены на недвижимость в BEIJING (Пекин) в марте упали на 27% - это практически обвальное падение
BEIJING (MNI) - Prices of new homes in China's capital plunged 26.7% month-on-month in March, the Beijing News reported Tuesday, citing data from the city's Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission.
Average prices of newly-built houses in March fell 10.9% over the same month last year to CNY19,679 per square meter, marking the first year-on-year decline since September 2009.
Home purchases fell 50.9% y/y and 41.5% m/m, the newspaper said, citing an unidentified official from the Housing Commission as saying the falls point to the government's crackdown on speculation in the real estate market.
Beijing property prices rose 0.4% m/m in February, 0.8% in January and 0.2% in December, according to National Bureau of Statistics data.
The central government has launched several rounds of measures since last year designed to cool the housing market, though local government reliance on land sales to plug fiscal holes mean enforcement hasn't been uniform.
Данные по инфляции вышли точно такими, как были согласно утечке от Феникс ТВ. Вот они с язвительными комментариями от Zero Hedge
RTRS-CPI 5.3-5.4% (BBERG est is 5.2%)
RTRS-PPI 7.4% (BBERG est is 7.2%)
RTRS-IP 14.8% (BBERG est is 14%)
RTRS-RETAIL SALES +17.4% (BBERG est is 16.5%)
RTRS-FIXED ASSET +25% (BBERG est is 24.8%)
And here is the final:
- CPI: 5.4%
- PPI 7.3%
- IP 14.8%
- RETAIL SALES +17.4%
And GDP comes in at a blistering 9.7%
The communists even leak data better than America. They also have a big inflation problem. Per the AP: "Food costs rose 11 percent in the first three months of the year over a year ago"
Obviously, none of this data relevant or even remotely representative of China's reality: these days the only job a government has, is to lie to its peasantry.
А вот реакция китайских официальных властей на утечку данных:
Пекин. 15 апреля. ИНТЕРФАКС-АФИ — Государственное статистическое управление
(ГСУ) КНР в пятницу выступило с осуждением утечки макроэкономических данных
накануне их публикации, пообещав провести расследование и наказать виновных.
Как сообщает агентство Bloomberg, в четверг - за день до публикации
показателей по ВВП и инфляции в Китае - в Интернете началось обсуждение
распространенных неизвестными источниками данных, совпавших с официальными
значениями.
«Мы полагаем, что любое противозаконное поведение должно быть наказано. Те, кто
распространяет государственные секреты в Интернете или иных публичных
информационных сетях, должны быть призваны к ответственности», - заявил в
пятницу на брифинге официальный представитель ГСУ Шэн Лайюнь.
Одной из первой значения 10 макроэкономических показателей, публикуемых ГСУ
и центральным банком КНР, в четверг утром опубликовала на своем веб-сайте
телекомпания Phoenix Satellite Television Holdings Ltd. Девять из них совпали с
обнародованными позже статданными.
