Дайджест валютного рынка

Наверно, это сигнал на их покупку.

Волкер видит опасность в фондах денежного рынка

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теперь англоязычные

SEAN DARBY: Buy Sushi, Sell Kimchi And Expect A 9% Sell-Off In Stocks

Главный стратег по акциям Jefferies ожидает коррекцию на рынке акций порядка 5-9%, поскольку позиционирование стало чересчур агрессивным.

During Thursday's trading session, Bloomberg's John Dawson asked Jefferies' Chief Global Equity Strategist Sean Darby for his thoughts on Goldman's recommendation.

"I think it's generally acknowledged that equities are in the better position than bonds," said Darby. "But we've had an enormous rally over the last six months, and positioning now in equities has become quite aggressive. So I suspect you need to put this into a time frame that we'd have to look for some form of a correction of 5% to 9% in the equity markets given the risk appetite that's already been placed into share."

Darby sees this stock market sell-off coming soon, but not until after the first quarter.

Darby также считает, что центральные банки не позволят доходностям дальше расти.

He also noted that central banks are unlikely to let yields to continue to rise, which would cause bond prices to fall. "It's not in the policy-makers' interest to see yields continue to rise, so expect more quantitative easing," he said. "You've got quite a bit of time to move out of fixed-income into equities."

Here's What's Behind The Weak Chinese PMI Number

Что стоит за слабыми цифрами китайского PMI

In his latest report, Ting Lu, China economist for Bank of America-Merrill Lynch points out three main reasons for the decline:

"First, compared with official PMI, the HSBC index focuses more on SME, which could be hit harder by tight liquidity, though we believe China’s liquidity condition is being improved. Second, since China’s export manufacturers tend to be of small scale, the HSBC PMI sample could also have more exposure to exports. In Jan-Feb, export growth decelerated to 6.9% YoY from 14.3% in 4Q11. Third, small manufacturers, which lack of economy of scale, are being consolidated into big ones."

While a reading below 50 indicates contractionary level and the figure is likely to bring out the China bears, Lu says that China is not looking at a hard landing. Lu expects liquidity conditions to improve and projects year-over-year GDP growth of 8.3 - 8.5 percent this in the first quarter.

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Two Charts On Why The LTRO Is A 'Real' Failure

2 графика, которые свидетельствуют о том, что LTRO – это реальный провал

What is most worrisome however is the absolute and utter lack of impact to the ‘real economy’ of Europe as PMIs have continued to slip and sentiment stumbles – nowhere is this more evident than in charts of Corporate Credit Demand and Corporate Credit Availability, which as Morgan Stanley notes today, suggest the deleveraging balance sheet recessionary impacts felt in Japan and the US are now writ large in European minds as minimizing debt dominates maximizing profits (or living standards). Demand for credit is sliding for both large and small firms and bank lending standards continue to tighten aggressively for both large and small firms. As austerity continues and credit contracts, it seems apparent that the much-hoped for shallow recession in Europe will be deeper and longer than most currently believe.

Спрос со стороны компаний на кредиты снижается, требования к заемщикам растут.

Demand from small firms for credit - just as we saw in the US - is lagging notably now. Large firms also are showing falling demand but at a shallower rate but with jobless rates so high already and the smaller firms (as in the US) as the engine of job creation, it seems problems are playing out in a similar path to the other deleveraging regions of the world...

Guest Post: Temporary Backwardation: The Path Forward From 2008

Бэквордация в золоте.

Backwardation means that anyone who has gold or silver could simultaneously sell the metal and buy futures contracts to recover their position, and make a profit. The market is tight. The metal is out there, but obviously those who have it in an unencumbered form are not able (retail) or willing (others?) to take this backwardation bait.

Stolper Appears In Time Of FX Uncertainty, Provides Fadance

Известный своими неудачными прогнозами Столпер из GS дает новые рекомендации.

"Advice" which Goldman Sachs provides to "muppets") in that he prefers to be short USDJPY from 82.8 (suggesting JPY strength on the back of seasonal patterns and the recent deterioration in the trade balance as being transitory temporary). Given his recent track record, being long the USD against the JPY would seem appropriate and his stop (and therefore the target) at around 84.5.

Home Prices Miss Large On 9th Consecutive Downward Revision

Цены на дома продолжают демонстрировать снижение

It will come as no surprise to many that the warm-weather-induced ebullience and renaissance in the US housing market is perhaps floundering as all that demand was dragged forward. Today's notable miss in the FHFA Home Price Index (at unch vs an expectation of +0.3%) is ugly but the huge downward revision from +0.7% to merely +0.1% in the previous month is now the ninth consecutive notable downward revision.Add to that the fact that FreddieMac just reported mortgage rate cracking over 4% (from 3.92% to 4.08%) and the ugly data on MBA applications and...well at least we're decoupling.

LTRO Stigma Spikes As Sovereigns Slump

Доходность облигаций европейской периферии стала расти, и диффенциал между банками, принявшими участие в LTRO (слабыми банками) и не принявшими ликвидность от ЕЦБ растет, показывая недоверие рынка к зависящим от помощи ЕЦБ кредитным учреждениям. Это то, что получило название LTRO-стигма.

The LTRO Stigma (the spread between LTRO-encumbered banks and non-LTRO-encumbered banks) has jumped again and is near its worst levels since the initial LTRO at over a 90bps differential. Corporate credit and stocks are also notably weaker as credit decompresses to catch up with stocks weakness as CDS roll technicals unwind.

Those Catchy Spanish (Yield) Curves

Tchir of TF Market Advisors анализирует кривую доходности облигаций Испании

Spanish Yield Curve

With ZIRP and LTRO it is hard to get a good read on the Spanish yield curve and what anything means.

Spanish 10 year yields have risen 9 days in a row, 5 year yields have moved higher 8 out of 9 days, and the 2 year has been much more mixed, until recently.

The 2 year yield is out 19 bps in those 9 days, but 18 bps of that move has occurred the last 2 days. The 2 year bond fits the sweet spot of LTRO, is likely to be held by banks in non mark to market accounts, so it has been stable, but it has even started to leak a little. The move is small, almost trivial, yet with all the things working to support 2 year bonds, it is curious that it is able to widen at all, let alone 18 bps in 2 days.

The 10 year yield is 48 bps higher, but the 5 year yield is 54 bps higher. The curve is still steep, but we are starting to see yields moving faster in the 5 year than in the 10 year. In the past 5 days, the 5 year yields have underperformed the 10 year by 7 bps. At the risk of making a mountain out of a mole-hill, this is worth watching. The move started with the entire curve steepening. So the move was bearish, but more isolated to the long end. The move is starting to impact the “belly” of the curve more. In a normal world, this small “flattening” of 5’s/10’s would be easy to ignore, but in a world where the curves are influenced (manipulated) by government policies that do everything possible to keep the front end anchored, this move may mean far more than it normally would.

Initial Claims Beat Expectations, To Miss Next Week Following Revision

Первичные обращения за пособиями превзошли ожидания, но ZH предсказывает им ревизию в худшую сторону на следующей неделе.

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USD/CAD - Chance To Crack Support On Retail Sales And Inflation Data

Много полезной информации, касающейся канадского доллара

More Evidence Of China's Slowing Economy

Реакция AUD и CAD показали, как чувствительны рынки к новостям, касающимся замедления крупнейшей азиатской экономики.

There was a huge reaction from commodity currencies to HSBC's Chinese flash PMI data, with both the Kiwi and Aussie taking a hammering. Price action before the sell-off was characterised by more position rebalancing leading to a small rally, but the Chinese PMI data highlights how sensitive the market is to growth-negative news.

В Японии данные по торговому балансу оказались лучше ожиданий и это позитивно подействовало на JPY.

In Japan, merchandise trade balance data for February was released, with the headline figure printing well above consensus estimates at JPY32.9bn (exp. -JPY120.0bn). The surplus was a result of a 2.7%y/y slide in exports versus a previous -9.3%y/y, at the same time as imports increased 9.2%y/y after a 9.8%y/y increase for January.

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A technical recession in the eurozone?

Есть ли техническая рецессия в еврозоне?

The PMI figures tend to lead GDP changes and are released significantly in advance (hence why they are valuable). If the relationship holds, the GDP figures will reveal two consecutive quarters of falling output. Here’s where we stand:

Вот это важно!

Цифры PMI имеют тенденцию вести за собой изменение ВВП, публикуются со значительным опережением и поэтому имеют такое важное значение. Если привычная корреляция сохранится, то цифры PMI еврозоны прогнозируют два последовательных квартала снижения ВВП.

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