Начало вчерашним распродажам на рынках было положено китайским рынком.
Shanghai Composite вчера снизился на 2,65% и дал сигнал продажам на рынке commodities, что вполне естественно: ведь КНР – главный их потребитель.
Поводом для продаж на китайском рынке стали плохие оценки корпоративных прибылей и оценки, которые были даны по этому вопросу Citi
Commodities и сделали американским индексам вполне умеренное снижение.
Отметим, что снижение шло не по всем секторам. Банковский сектор по-прежнему чувствует себя очень хорошо.
А какие сигналы дают нам другие индикаторы?
Ни ATR, ни put/call–коэффициент, ни VIX пока не показывают нам на перспективу более глубокой чем 2-3% коррекции.
Индикаторы остаются в режиме «риск включен».
Число быков и медведей на немецком рынке акций (DAX) абсолютно выравнялось.
Таким образом, показания этих индикаторов нейтральны и указывают на перспективу продолжения боковика ( с моей точки зрения американский фондовый рынок с 15 марта консолидируется)
О чем нам сигнализирует самый крупный в мире рынок облигаций – американский?
Вот так в табличной форме выглядит за март кривая доходности US Treasuries. Как мы видим, в этом месяце она была под определенным давлением.
Вчерашнее размещение 5-year US Treasuries прошло не очень успешно; как по доходности, так и по bid/ask.
Видно что-то изменилось в настроении инвесторов. Билл Гросс предвещает продолжение плавного роста доходности.
Между тем в Европе проблем с долгом теперь нет и до конца года не будет (спасибо Драги), в то время как в Америке предстоит каждый месяц размещать на 100-120 млрд. долларов нового долга.
Поэтому я бы ожидал в ближайшее время изменение в корреляции фондового рынка и рынка облигаций. Снижение на рынке акций не будет сопровождаться снижением доходности US Treasuries.
Основное событие, которого все ждут – заседание Еврогруппы завтра, где должна быть принята принципиальная схема функционирования фондов EFSF и ESM. Была утечка, что общий объем фондов составит 940 млрд. EURO. И хотя по эффекту это даже и близко нельзя сравнивать с LTRO, поскольку при использовании этих денег придется проходить много формальных процедур, но, несомненно, новость о существенном пополнении фонда экстренного пожаротушения локальных долговых кризисов в еврозоне поддержит те же локальные долговые рынки. Хотя повторюсь – на гидрантах очень много задвижек и какую-нибудь их них может заклинить.
Но на сегодня-завтра – это несомненный позитив и определенный повод для срабатывания условного рыночного рефлекса.
Так что сегодня-завтра существует вероятность возвращения рынков к максимумам. О готовности рынков отыграть эту новость свидетельствует и поведение EURO, который никак не реагирует на наблюдаемый в последние два дня уход от риска.
С другой стороны, определенную вероятность также следует отвести на то, что, возможно, эта новость уже заложена в рынок и демонстрация рефлекса окажется не такой уж убедительной.
«Собачка Павлова» не виновата в том, что ее перекормили.
Резюме: рынок мне представляется достаточно мутным на ближайшие два дня. Но думаю, что уже на выходных можно будет делать какие-то более обоснованные прогнозы.
Сегодня я еще напишу несколько слов о их перспективах, а также еще о ряде других commodities.
Неделю назад я писал:
Золото растет на протяжении 10 лет очень стабильно без особых подскоков. Средние годовые темпы роста – 14,5%. Сейчас рост с начала года составляет 23%.
На мой взгляд , до конца года у золота практически нет апсайда для роста. Выгоднее сейчас покупать акции.
Золото находится в верхней части того диапазона, в котором, как я оцениваю, оно закроет этот год: 1700-1750 долларов.
Даже без рассмотрения отчета СОТ, несмотря на перспективы сильного ралли в рискованных активах в декабре, которые я описал сегодня, я бы не рекомендовал бы вам сейчас покупать золото.
Как видно из графика, золото действительно за неделю сходило два раза от 1750 с небольшим к 1701-1703 и закрыло ту неделю близко к нижней границе.
Золото, на мой взгляд, выглядело явно слабее фондовых индексов.
Сегодня мы увидели утром пробой сходящегося треугольника вниз и минимум в районе 1678,64 доллара. Несомненно, что мы увидим на этой неделе продолжение снижения и как минимум 1650 долларов (перед этим золото может сходить к 1710).
В диапазоне 1600-1650 долларов ИМХО уже можно покупать золото, в расчете на ралли в конце месяца.
Посмотрим на отчет СОТ.
Я не вижу здесь никаких сигналов. Ситуация по золоту совершенно нейтральная.
Позиции мелких спекулянтов составляют порядка 20% от нетто ОИ. Такой объем в принципе не создает предпосылок к целенаправленной игре против их позиций.
СЕРЕБРО
В серебре с точки зрения СОТ ситуация гораздо более негативная, чем в золоте.
ОИ увеличился на 10%, в основном за счет мелких спекулянтов, которые имеют примерно 45% лонгов от нетто ОИ. Это очень много и дает негативный сигнал для серебра. Поэтому потенциала для преодоления отметки в 35 долларов даже в случае какого-то серьезного позитива ИМХО у серебра нет.
В то же время я не вижу и потенциала для заметного снижения. Позиция крупных трейдеров близка к минимальной, серебро торгуется близко к ценам начала года и значительно уступает своему старшему брату – золоту.
ИМХО ниже 30,5 долларов серебро можно покупать с целью минимум 32,5-33 доллара до конца года.
О более длительной перспективе говорить пока не берусь, так как в начале следующего года может быть более серьезный заход вниз. Этот вопрос пока неясен.
В любом случае серебро – это не медь, Это не столько промышленный металл, сколько металлическая валюта.
Фундаментально в долгосрочку это практически безрисковый актив – лучше акций.
КСТАТИ О МЕДИ.
Ситуация с медью по типу похожа на конец лета 2008 года. Крупные трейдеры ушли в шорт, а коммерческие в лонг. Такая диспозиция сулит продолжение медвежьего тренда в первом полугодии 1212 года.
В целом во всех commodities ситуация нейтральная или медвежья, за исключением soybeans (соевые бобы).
SOYBEANS
В этом активе уникальная расстановка сил. Коммерческие трейдеры в одном лагере с крупными и противостоят мелким спекулянтам, действующим с успехом в последние 4 месяца. Притом с октября месяца крупным трейдерам пришлось активно закрывать лонги в убыток.
ОИ сейчас очень мал по сравнению со средним.
При цене 1250 коммерческие трейдеры приступили к хеджированию слишком низких цен на продукт.
Возможное объяснение:
MF Global имел очень большие позиции на рынках сельскохозяйственных продуктов. Возможно, что сейчас идет принудительное закрытие их позиций, а мелкие спекулянты – это инсайдеры, действующие не от лица крупных игроков фьючерсного рынка, а от собственного лица.
От огромной позиции крупных трейдеров в 200000 контрактов осталось всего 11000. Здесь находятся оставшиеся позиции MF Global. Не думаю, что их закрытие способно серьезно сдвинуть цену вниз.
В пятницу мы видели в этом инструменте пробой и снятие стопов ниже 1100 доларов. Такая процедура обычно предшествует развороту.
На мой взгляд в soybeans есть предпосылки для открытия длинной позиции. Во всяком случае я рискнул это сделать...
Я ничего не менял, я - простой человек, –отвечает Джим Роджерс.
Мои активы находятся главным образом в commodities и валютах, а мои шорты - развивающиеся рынки и американские высокотехнологичные компании.
Я также в шорте по одному крупному американскому международному банку (BofA ?). Я в шорте по американским долгосрочным казначейским облигациям.
Роджерс в лонге по доллару и евро. Доллар он предпочитает евро.
Commodities – это самое надежное по мнению Роджерса.
Если экономика будет расти – все будут покупать commodities. Если экономика не будет расти, то правительства будут печатать много денег и commodities все-равно будут расти.
Фед будет печатать деньги, поэтому лучше оставаться в commodities.
7 июня Бен Бернанке выступил с речью «Перспективы экономики США» в Атланте. ВЫступление дает хорошее представление того, как ФРС оценивает состояние экономики и какие могут быть дальнейшие шаги.
Дальше Бен Бернанке отвечает на критические замечания в адрес Феда.
Against this backdrop of extremely robust growth in demand, the supply of many commodities has lagged behind. For example, world oil production has increased less than 1 percent per year since 2004, compared with nearly 2 percent per year in the prior decade. In part, the slower increase in the supply of oil reflected disappointing rates of production in countries that are not part of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). However, OPEC has not shown much willingness to ramp up production, either. Most recently, OPEC production fell 1.3 million barrels per day from January to April of this year, reflecting the disruption to Libyan supplies and the lack of any significant offset from other OPEC producers. Indeed, OPEC's production of oil today remains about 3 million barrels per day below the peak level of mid-2008. With the demand for oil rising rapidly and the supply of crude stagnant, increases in oil prices are hardly a puzzle.
Production shortfalls have plagued many other commodities as well. Agricultural output has been hard hit by a spate of bad weather around the globe. For example, last summer's drought in Russia severely reduced that country's wheat crop. In the United States, high temperatures significantly impaired the U.S. corn crop last fall, and dry conditions are currently hurting the wheat crop in Kansas. Over the past year, droughts have also afflicted Argentina, China, and France. Fortunately, the lag between planting and harvesting for many crops is relatively short; thus, if more-typical weather patterns resume, supplies of agricultural commodities should rebound, thereby reducing the pressure on prices.
Not all commodity prices have increased, illustrating the point that supply and demand conditions can vary across markets. For example, prices for both lumber and natural gas are currently near their levels of the early 2000s. The demand for lumber has been curtailed by weakness in the U.S. construction sector, while the supply of natural gas in the United States has been increased by significant innovations in extraction techniques.5 Among agricultural commodities, rice prices have remained relatively subdued, reflecting favorable growing conditions.
In all, these cases reinforce the view that the fundamentals of global supply and demand have been playing a central role in recent swings in commodity prices. That said, there is usually significant uncertainty about current and prospective supply and demand. Accordingly, commodity prices, like the prices of financial assets, can be volatile as market participants react to incoming news. Recently, commodity prices seem to have been particularly responsive to news bearing on the prospects for global economic growth as well as geopolitical developments.
As the rapid growth of emerging market economies seems likely to continue, should we therefore expect continued rapid increases in the prices of globally-traded commodities? While it is certainly possible that we will see further increases, there are good reasons to believe that commodity prices will not continue to rise at the rapid rates we have seen recently. In the short run, unexpected shortfalls in the supplies of key commodities result in sharp price increases, as usage patterns and available supplies are difficult to change quickly. Over longer periods, however, high levels of commodity prices curtail demand as households and firms adjust their spending and production patterns. Indeed, as I noted earlier, we have already seen significant reductions in commodity use in the advanced economies. Likewise, over time, high prices should elicit meaningful increases in supply, both as temporary factors, such as adverse weather, abate and as investments in productive capacity come to fruition. Finally, because expectations of higher prices lead financial market participants to bid up the spot prices of commodities, predictable future developments bearing on the demands for and supplies of commodities tend already to be reflected in current prices. For these reasons, although unexpected developments could certainly lead to continued volatility in global commodity prices, it is reasonable to expect the effects of commodity prices on overall inflation to be relatively moderate in the medium term.
While supply and demand fundamentals surely account for most of the recent movements in commodity prices, some observers have attributed a significant portion of the run-up in prices to Federal Reserve policies, over and above the effects of those policies on U.S. economic growth. For example, some have argued that accommodative U.S. monetary policy has driven down the foreign exchange value of the dollar, thereby boosting the dollar price of commodities. Indeed, since February 2009, the trade-weighted dollar has fallen by about 15 percent. However, since February 2009, oil prices have risen 160 percent and nonfuel commodity prices are up by about 80 percent, implying that the dollar's decline can explain, at most, only a small part of the rise in oil and other commodity prices; indeed, commodity prices have risen dramatically when measured in terms of any of the world's major currencies, not just the dollar. But even this calculation overstates the role of monetary policy, as many factors other than monetary policy affect the value of the dollar. For example, the decline in the dollar since February 2009 that I just noted followed a comparable increase in the dollar, which largely reflected flight-to-safety flows triggered by the financial crisis in the latter half of 2008; the dollar's decline since then in substantial part reflects the reversal of those flows as the crisis eased. Slow growth in the United States and a persistent trade deficit are additional, more fundamental sources of recent declines in the dollar's value; in particular, as the United States is a major oil importer, any geopolitical or other shock that increases the global price of oil will worsen our trade balance and economic outlook, which tends to depress the dollar. In this case, the direction of causality runs from commodity prices to the dollar rather than the other way around. The best way for the Federal Reserve to support the fundamental value of the dollar in the medium term is to pursue our dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, and we will certainly do that.
Another argument that has been made is that low interest rates have pushed up commodity prices by reducing the cost of holding inventories, thus boosting commodity demand, or by encouraging speculators to push commodity futures prices above their fundamental levels. In either case, if such forces were driving commodity prices materially and persistently higher, we should see corresponding increases in commodity inventories, as higher prices curtailed consumption and boosted production relative to their fundamental levels. In fact, inventories of most commodities have not shown sizable increases over the past year as prices rose; indeed, increases in prices have often been associated with lower rather than higher levels of inventories, likely reflecting strong demand or weak supply that tends to put pressure on available stocks.
Finally, some have suggested that very low interest rates in the United States and other advanced economies have created risks of economic overheating in emerging market economies and have thus indirectly put upward pressures on commodity prices. In fact, most of the recent rapid economic growth in emerging market economies appears to reflect a bounceback from the previous recession and continuing increases in productive capacity, as their technologies and capital stocks catch up with those in advanced economies, rather than being primarily the result of monetary conditions in those countries. More fundamentally, however, whatever the source of the recent growth in the emerging markets, the authorities in those economies clearly have a range of fiscal, monetary, exchange rate, and other tools that can be used to address any overheating that may occur. As in all countries, the primary objective of monetary policy in the United States should be to promote economic growth and price stability at home, which in turn supports a stable global economic and financial environment.
И наконец про монетарную политику.
Monetary Policy
Let me conclude with a few words about the current stance of monetary policy. As I have discussed today, the economic recovery in the United States appears to be proceeding at a moderate pace and--notwithstanding unevenness in the rate of progress and some recent signs of reduced momentum--the labor market has been gradually improving. At the same time, the jobs situation remains far from normal, with unemployment remaining elevated. Inflation has risen lately but should moderate, assuming that commodity prices stabilize and that, as I expect, longer-term inflation expectations remain stable.
Against this backdrop, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has maintained a highly accommodative monetary policy, keeping its target for the federal funds rate close to zero and further easing monetary conditions through large-scale asset purchases. The FOMC has indicated that it will complete its purchases of $600 billion of Treasury securities by the end of this month while maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. The Committee also continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period.
ФОМС указал, что он завершит покупку казначейских бумаг на 600 млрд. долларов к концу месяца, в то время как сохранит существующую политику реинвестирования денег, полученных от погашения. Ставка федеральных фондов остнется на низком уровне еще долгое время.
The U.S. economy is recovering from both the worst financial crisis and the most severe housing bust since the Great Depression, and it faces additional headwinds ranging from the effects of the Japanese disaster to global pressures in commodity markets. In this context, monetary policy cannot be a panacea. Still, the Federal Reserve's actions in recent years have doubtless helped stabilize the financial system, ease credit and financial conditions, guard against deflation, and promote economic recovery.All of this has been accomplished, I should note, at no net cost to the federal budget or to the U.S. taxpayer.
Действия Федрезерва в последние годы несомненно помогли стабилизировать финансовую систему, облегчить кредитование и финансовые условия, защитить экономику от инфляции и стимулировать экономическое восстановление. Все это уже достигнуто безо всяких затрат со стороны федерального бюджете или налогоплательщика.
Сам себя не похвалишь - никто тебя не похвалит!
Although it is moving in the right direction, the economy is still producing at levels well below its potential; consequently, accommodative monetary policies are still needed. Until we see a sustained period of stronger job creation, we cannot consider the recovery to be truly established. At the same time, the longer-run health of the economy requires that the Federal Reserve be vigilant in preserving its hard-won credibility for maintaining price stability. As I have explained, most FOMC participants currently see the recent increase in inflation as transitory and expect inflation to remain subdued in the medium term. Should that forecast prove wrong, however, and particularly if signs were to emerge that inflation was becoming more broadly based or that longer-term inflation expectations were becoming less well anchored, the Committee would respond as necessary. Under all circumstances, our policy actions will be guided by the objectives of supporting the recovery in output and employment while helping ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with the Federal Reserve's mandate.
Хотя движение идет в правильном направлении, экономика все еще работает на уровнях заметно ниже ее потенциала.
Необходимость в мягкой монетарной политике сохраняется.
Дэвид Розенберг делает следующие выводы из выступления Бернанке
The Fed seems to have cut its second-half forecast of near-4% real growth to something closer to 2.5-3.0% ... growth is now seen to pick up just "somewhat" in the second half of the year from what looks like a sub-2% trend in the first half. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for pro-growth cyclically sensitive investments.
The broad focus seems squarely on the labour market — what seems to be Bernanke's greatest worry is lack of traction. The words "jobs", "labour", "employment" and "unemployment" collectively showed up no fewer than 23 times. The comments on how aggregate hours worked are still more below the cycle high than was the case at the depths of the 1982 should be resonating on even the most ardent growth bulls and inflation-phobes.
On fiscal policy, his comment suggests that he is concerned that the zealots will tighten the budgetary screws too hard over the near term — hence his emphasis on the need for "long-term" solutions.
The Fed expects commodity prices to stabilize and as such for inflation to decline going forward. Interesting to see the analysis that ALL of the build-up of inflation so far has been due to gas prices, which seem to have peaked.
Another QE round cannot be dismissed after reading this sombre assessment of the macro backdrop; at the least, the funds rate stays on hold and that should provide an anchor for yields out the steep Treasury curve.
7 июня Бен Бернанке выступил с речью «Перспективы экономики США» в Атланте. Эта речь ожидалась с большим вниманием и фактически она ответила на главный вопрос: «Завершится ли QE2 в июне? Ответ – завершится. Останется QE Lite: реинвестирование денег от погашения MBS.
В этой речи Бернанке также ответил на несколько наиболее распространенных обвинений, которые в последнее время звучали в его адрес.
ВЫступление дает хорошее представление того, как ФРС оценивает состояние экономики и какие могут быть дальнейшие шаги. Не имея возможности полностью перевести эту статью, я постарался выделить из нее самые важные тезисы, некоторые из которых перевел.
I would like to thank the organizers for inviting me to participate once again in the International Monetary Conference. I will begin with a brief update on the outlook for the U.S. economy, then discuss recent developments in global commodity markets that are significantly affecting both the U.S. and world economies, and conclude with some thoughts on the prospects for monetary policy.
The Outlook for Growth
U.S. economic growth so far this year looks to have been somewhat slower than expected. Aggregate output increased at only 1.8 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter, and supply chain disruptions associated with the earthquake and tsunami in Japan are hampering economic activity this quarter. A number of indicators also suggest some loss of momentum in the labor market in recent weeks. We are, of course, monitoring these developments. That said, with the effects of the Japanese disaster on manufacturing output likely to dissipate in coming months, and with some moderation in gasoline prices in prospect, growth seems likely to pick up somewhat in the second half of the year. Overall, the economic recovery appears to be continuing at a moderate pace, albeit at a rate that is both uneven across sectors and frustratingly slow from the perspective of millions of unemployed and underemployed workers.
Можно сказать, что влияние землятрясения в Японии на промышленное производство рассеется в ближайшие месяцы, и при некотором уменьшении цен на бензин в перспективе рост во второй половине года должен оказаться несколько выше, чем в первой.
As is often the case, the ability and willingness of households to spend will be an important determinant of the pace at which the economy expands in coming quarters. A range of positive and negative forces is currently influencing both household finances and attitudes. On the positive side, household incomes have been boosted by the net improvement in job market conditions since earlier this year as well as from the reduction in payroll taxes that the Congress passed in December. Increases in household wealth--largely reflecting gains in equity values--and lower debt burdens have also increased consumers' willingness to spend. On the negative side, households are facing some significant headwinds, including increases in food and energy prices, declining home values, continued tightness in some credit markets, and still-high unemployment, all of which have taken a toll on consumer confidence.
Рост благосостояния домашних хозяйств –главным образом благодаря росту акций – и уменьшение долговой нагрузки увеличили готовность потребителей тратить деньги.
Вот он - третий мандат Федрезерва!
Developments in the labor market will be of particular importance in setting the course for household spending. As you know, the jobs situation remains far from normal. For example, aggregate hours of production workers--a comprehensive measure of labor input that reflects the extent of part-time employment and opportunities for overtime as well as the number of people employed--fell, remarkably, by nearly 10 percent from the beginning of the recent recession through October 2009. Although hours of work have increased during the expansion, this measure still remains about 6-1/2 percent below its pre-recession level. For comparison, the maximum decline in aggregate hours worked in the deep 1981-82 recession was less than 6 percent. Other indicators, such as total payroll employment, the ratio of employment to population, and the unemployment rate, paint a similar picture. Particularly concerning is the very high level of long-term unemployment--nearly half of the unemployed have been jobless for more than six months. People without work for long periods can find it increasingly difficult to obtain a job comparable to their previous one, as their skills tend to deteriorate over time and as employers are often reluctant to hire the long-term unemployed.
Although the jobs market remains quite weak and progress has been uneven, overall we have seen signs of gradual improvement. For example, private-sector payrolls increased at an average rate of about 180,000 per month over the first five months of this year, compared with less than 140,000 during the last four months of 2010 and less than 80,000 per month in the four months prior to that. As I noted, however, recent indicators suggest some loss of momentum, with last Friday's jobs market report showing an increase in private payrolls of just 83,000 in May. I expect hiring to pick up from last month's pace as growth strengthens in the second half of the year, but, again, the recent data highlight the need to continue monitoring the jobs situation carefully.
Ситуация с занятостью остается далека от нормальной. Хотя рынок труда остается достаточно слабым и прогресс распределяется неровно, в целом Бернанке видит признаки постепенного улучшения.
Бернанке ожидает, что занятость улучшится во второй половине года, но собирается продолжать постоянно мониторить ситуацию с инфляцией.
The business sector generally presents a more upbeat picture. Capital spending on equipment and software has continued to expand, reflecting an improving sales outlook and the need to replace aging capital. Many U.S. firms, notably in manufacturing but also in services, have benefited from the strong growth of demand in foreign markets. Going forward, investment and hiring in the private sector should be facilitated by the ongoing improvement in credit conditions. Larger businesses remain able to finance themselves at historically low interest rates, and corporate balance sheets are strong. Smaller businesses still face difficulties in obtaining credit, but surveys of both banks and borrowers indicate that conditions are slowly improving for those firms as well.
In contrast, virtually all segments of the construction industry remain troubled. In the residential sector, low home prices and mortgage rates imply that housing is quite affordable by historical standards; yet, with underwriting standards for home mortgages having tightened considerably, many potential homebuyers are unable to qualify for loans. Uncertainties about job prospects and the future course of house prices have also deterred potential buyers. Given these constraints on the demand for housing, and with a large inventory of vacant and foreclosed properties overhanging the market, construction of new single-family homes has remained at very low levels, and house prices have continued to fall. The housing sector typically plays an important role in economic recoveries; the depressed state of housing in the United States is a big reason that the current recovery is less vigorous than we would like.
Бизнес-сектор в целом дает картину улучшения. Но сохраняются проблемы во всех сегментах строительства.
Сектор недвижимости играет важную роль в экономических восстановлениях: депрессивное состояние сектора недвижимости – вот та большая причина, почему текущее восстановление пока еще менее решительно, чем нам хотелось бы, - говорит Бернанке.
Developments in the public sector also help determine the pace of recovery. Here, too, the picture is one of relative weakness. Fiscally constrained state and local governments continue to cut spending and employment. Moreover, the impetus provided to the growth of final demand by federal fiscal policies continues to wane.
The prospect of increasing fiscal drag on the recovery highlights one of the many difficult tradeoffs faced by fiscal policymakers: If the nation is to have a healthy economic future, policymakers urgently need to put the federal government's finances on a sustainable trajectory. But, on the other hand, a sharp fiscal consolidation focused on the very near term could be self-defeating if it were to undercut the still-fragile recovery. The solution to this dilemma, I believe, lies in recognizing that our nation's fiscal problems are inherently long-term in nature. Consequently, the appropriate response is to move quickly to enact a credible, long-term plan for fiscal consolidation. By taking decisions today that lead to fiscal consolidation over a longer horizon, policymakers can avoid a sudden fiscal contraction that could put the recovery at risk. At the same time, establishing a credible plan for reducing future deficits now would not only enhance economic performance in the long run, but could also yield near-term benefits by leading to lower long-term interest rates and increased consumer and business confidence.
Бернанке призывает политиков быстрее решить вопрос с федеральным бюджетом. При этом он считает, что решение этой проблемы - в признании того факта, что национальные бюджетные проблемы носят долгосрочный характер. Короче говоря, давайте скорей долгосрочный план, неважно – выполним он или невыполним.
The Outlook for Inflation
Let me turn to the outlook for inflation. As you all know, over the past year, prices for many commodities have risen sharply, resulting in significantly higher consumer prices for gasoline and other energy products and, to a somewhat lesser extent, for food. Overall inflation measures reflect these price increases: For example, over the six months through April, the price index for personal consumption expenditures has risen at an annual rate of about 3-1/2 percent, compared with an average of less than 1 percent over the preceding two years.
Although the recent increase in inflation is a concern, the appropriate diagnosis and policy response depend on whether the rise in inflation is likely to persist. So far at least, there is not much evidence that inflation is becoming broad-based or ingrained in our economy; indeed, increases in the price of a single product--gasoline--account for the bulk of the recent increase in consumer price inflation.1 Of course, gasoline prices are exceptionally important for both family finances and the broader economy; but the fact that gasoline price increases alone account for so much of the overall increase in inflation suggests that developments in the global market for crude oil and related products, as well as in other commodities markets, are the principal factors behind the recent movements in inflation, rather than factors specific to the U.S. economy. An important implication is that if the prices of energy and other commodities stabilize in ranges near current levels, as futures markets and many forecasters predict, the upward impetus to overall price inflation will wane and the recent increase in inflation will prove transitory. Indeed, the declines in many commodity prices seen over the past few weeks may be an indication that such moderation is occurring. I will discuss commodity prices further momentarily.
Пока нет свидетельств, что инфляция становится повсеместной и внедряется в экономику. Рост цен на бензин дает львиную долю роста потребительской инфляции. Важное значение имеет то, что цены на нефть и другие commodities должны стабилизироваться на текущих уровнях. Недавний рост инфляции окажется проходящим.
Далее Бернанке объясняет, почему он так считает.
Besides the prospect of more-stable commodity prices, two other factors suggest that inflation is likely to return to more subdued levels in the medium term. First, the still-substantial slack in U.S. labor and product markets should continue to have a moderating effect on inflationary pressures. Notably, because of the weak demand for labor, wage increases have not kept pace with productivity gains. Thus the level of unit labor costs in the business sector is lower than it was before the recession. Given the large share of labor costs in the production costs of most firms (typically, a share far larger than that of raw materials costs), subdued unit labor costs should remain a restraining influence on inflation. To be clear, I am not arguing that healthy increases in real wages are inconsistent with low inflation; the two are perfectly consistent so long as productivity growth is reasonably strong.
The second additional factor restraining inflation is the stability of longer-term inflation expectations. Despite the recent pickup in overall inflation, measures of households' longer-term inflation expectations from the Michigan survey, the 10-year inflation projections of professional economists, the 5-year-forward measure of inflation compensation derived from yields on inflation-protected securities, and other measures of longer-term inflation expectations have all remained reasonably stable.2 As long as longer-term inflation expectations are stable, increases in global commodity prices are unlikely to be built into domestic wage- and price-setting processes, and they should therefore have only transitory effects on the rate of inflation. That said, the stability of inflation expectations is ensured only as long as the commitment of the central bank to low and stable inflation remains credible. Thus, the Federal Reserve will continue to closely monitor the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations and will take whatever actions are necessary to keep inflation well controlled.
Два фактора предполагают, что инфляция снизится в среднесрочной перспективе. Первый: слабость рынка труда и производственного рынка будет смягчать инфляционное давление. Второй: стабильность долгосрочных ожиданий инфляции, которая обеспечивается обязательствами центрального банка и верой населения в то, что тот справится.
Commodity Prices
As I noted earlier, the rise in commodity prices has directly increased the rate of inflation while also adversely affecting consumer confidence and consumer spending. Let's look at these price increases in closer detail.
The basic facts are familiar. Oil prices have risen significantly, with the spot price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil near $100 per barrel as of the end of last week, up nearly 40 percent from a year ago. Proportionally, prices of corn and wheat have risen even more, roughly doubling over the past year. And prices of industrial metals have increased notably as well, with aluminum and copper prices up about one-third over the past 12 months. When the price of any product moves sharply, the economist's first instinct is to look for changes in the supply of or demand for that product. And indeed, the recent increase in commodity prices appears largely to be the result of the same factors that drove commodity prices higher throughout much of the past decade: strong gains in global demand that have not been met with commensurate increases in supply.
From 2002 to 2008, a period of sustained increases in commodity prices, world economic activity registered its fastest pace of expansion in decades, rising at an average rate of about 4-1/2 percent per year. This impressive performance was led by the emerging and developing economies, where real activity expanded at a remarkable 7 percent per annum. The emerging market economies have likewise led the way in the recovery from the global financial crisis: From 2008 to 2010, real gross domestic product (GDP) rose cumulatively by about 10 percent in the emerging market economies even as GDP was essentially unchanged, on net, in the advanced economies.3
Naturally, increased economic activity in emerging market economies has increased global demand for raw materials. Moreover, the heavy emphasis on industrial development in many emerging market economies has led their growth to be particularly intensive in the use of commodities, even as the consumption of commodities in advanced economies has stabilized or declined. For example, world oil consumption rose by 14 percent from 2000 to 2010; underlying this overall trend, however, was a 40 percent increase in oil use in emerging market economies and an outright decline of 4-1/2 percent in the advanced economies. In particular, U.S. oil consumption was about 2-1/2 percent lower in 2010 than in 2000, with net imports of oil down nearly 10 percent, even though U.S. real GDP rose by nearly 20 percent over that period.
This dramatic shift in the sources of demand for commodities is not unique to oil. If anything, the pattern is even more striking for industrial metals, where double-digit percentage rates of decline in consumption by the advanced economies over the past decade have been overwhelmed by triple-digit percentage increases in consumption by the emerging market economies.4 Likewise, improving diets in the emerging market economies have significantly increased their demand for agricultural commodities. Importantly, in noting these facts, I intend no criticism of emerging markets; growth in those economies has conferred substantial economic benefits both within those countries and globally, and in any case, the consumption of raw materials relative to population in emerging-market countries remains substantially lower than in the United States and other advanced economies. Nevertheless, it is undeniable that the tremendous growth in emerging market economies has considerably increased global demand for commodities in recent years.
Бернанке объясняет нам, откуда берется высокая инфляция. Во всем виноваты развивающиеся экономики. Они слишком быстро развиваются, отказались от диеты и стали хорошо кушать, а также потреблять слишком много нефти.
Вчера в Европе был выходной, на американском рынке акций почти ничего не происходило, драйверы движения отсутствовали, игроки тоже; только торговые роботы соревновались в скорости исполнении заявок, чтобы определить победителя (кто заберет деньги).
Днем началась коррекция в commodities. Серебро, которое очень быстро росло в последние дни, за два дня снизилось уже почти на 10%. Могу это объяснить запоздалой перекладкой из истекающих завтра фьючерсных контрактов в следующие календарные контракты: из-за очень сильного тренда участники рынка отложили это почти на последний день. Волатильность здесь сегодня-завтра может быть очень сильная.
Доллар тоже очень плавно стал укрепляться относительно других валют.
Сегодня из существенных событий только индекс Case-Shiller. Последние данные статистики показывают небольшое улучшение дел в сфере недвижимости. Но реакция рынка в нынешней ситуации на это своеобразная: доллар укрепляется, американский фьюч может вначале скакнуть вверх, но затем идет на снижение. Объяснение этому простое: положительные сдвиги в сфере недвижимости уменьшают шансы на QE. Цены на недвижимость – основной фактор, который «сдерживает» инфляцию. Скорее всего данные будут близки к ожиданиям.
В целом ожидаю, что если не случиться каких-то непредвиденных событий, американский фьюч в ближайшие два дня вплоть до ФОМС останется в боковике 1324-1335 пунктов.
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