Дайджест валютного рынка

Yeah, we had the same response as our readers when we saw that freak move in the EURUSD. Apparently, despite the fact that absolutely nothing has been resolved, Reuters just ran a headline that "Euro zone reaches deal on second Greek bailout package." And that is all it took for the EURUSD headline scanning algos to surge by 60 100 pips. That there nothing substantial in it, or that this is merely a rephrasing of the actual Bailout 2 announcement from before, is irrelevant. Here is what the actual Reuters report said.

Вот что сообщает Рейтерс:

Euro zone finance ministers struck a deal early on Tuesday for a second bailout programme for Greece that will involve financing of 130 billion euros and aims to cut Greece's debts to 121 percent of GDP by 2020, EU officials said.

"The financial volume (of the Greek package) is 130 billion euros and debt-to-GDP (will be) 121 percent. Now it's down to work on the statement," one official involved in the negotiations told Reuters.

Another official confirmed that the financing would total 130 billion euros with the aim of reducing Greece's debts from around 160 percent of GDP now to 121 percent by 2020.

More Leaked Greece Details: Downside Case Sees Funding Needs Soar From €136 Billion To €245 Billion

The FT's Peter Spiegel has scoped up some additional details from the 10 page debt sustainability analysis that is at the basis of the latest Greek bailout talks. Some of the critical details:

"even under the most optimistic scenario, the austerity measures being imposed on Athens risk a recession so deep that Greece will not be able to climb out of the debt hole over the course of the new €170bn bail-out."
A German-led group of creditor countries – including the Netherlands and Finland – has expressed extreme reluctance since they received the report about the advisability of allowing the second rescue to go through.
A “tailored downside scenario” prepared for eurozone leaders in the report suggests Greek debt could fall far more slowly than hoped, to only 160 per cent of economic output by 2020 – far below the target of 120 per cent set by the International Monetary Fund
- Under such a scenario, Greece would need about €245bn in bail-out aid, nearly twice the €136bn under the “baseline” projections.
“Prolonged financial support on appropriate terms by the official sector may be necessary,” the report said, a clear reference to the possibility that bail-out funds may be needed indefinitely.
Even in best case scenario country will need at least €50 billion on top of €136 billion.
A recapitalisation of the Greek banking sector, which originally was projected to cost €30bn, will now cost €50bn. A highly touted Greek privatisation plan, which originally hoped to raise €50bn, will now be delayed by five years and bring in only €30bn by the end of the decade.

Комментарий ZH:

Translated, this is yet another confirmation of what we have claimed all along - that Germany is no longer playing along.

[Updated] Get Greece (out)

Alphaville пишет в принципе о том же, но с некоторыми дополнительными деталями. Их взгляды и взгляды ZH практически совпадают: это пшик.

And from the FT’s Peter Spiegel, who has been leafing through the same leaked report:

The report makes clear why the fight over the new Greek bail-out has been so intense in recent days. A German-led group of creditor countries – including the Netherlands and Finland – has expressed extreme reluctance since they received the report about the advisability of allowing the second rescue to go through.

A “tailored downside scenario” prepared for eurozone leaders in the report suggests Greek debt could fall far more slowly than hoped, to only 160 per cent of economic output by 2020 – far below the target of 120 per cent set by the International Monetary Fund. Under such a scenario, Greece would need about €245bn in bail-out aid, nearly twice the €136bn under the “baseline” projections.

“Prolonged financial support on appropriate terms by the official sector may be necessary,” the report said, a clear reference to the possibility that bail-out funds may be needed indefinitely.

Even under the most favourable circumstances, Greece could need an additional €50bn in bail-out aid by the end of the decade on top of the €136bn in new funds until 2015 being debated at a crucial eurozone finance ministers’ meeting on Monday night. That “baseline” scenario includes projections that the Greek economy will stop shrinking next year and return to 2.3 per cent growth in 2014.

Несколько дополнительных ссылок из этой же статьи:

Updated — Peter Spiegal has more on the Brussels Blog.

Exclusive: Greek debt may remain at 160 per cent in ’20: IMF/ECB

Here’s a very useful fact box on the matter from Reuters.

Guest Post: The Great ECB-OSI Bond-Swap Scam

When nobody expects a Chinese RRR cut

Когда никто не ожидает понижения ставки в Китае

The Week In Review And Key Global Macro Events In The Coming Week

Обзор недели и ключевые события наступающей недели от Голдмана

Интересен комментарий относительно USD/JPY

What is interesting about the move in USD/JPY over the past month, is that it is once again co-moving with interest rate differentials after a notable breakdown in this relationship between mid-September last year to late January this. If the interest rate differential continues to widen, then USD/JPY may continue to move higher. However, FX is relative and we need to contemplate the prospect of QE3 from the FOMC likely in Q2. With the front ends of the curves in both Japan and the US likely to be anchored by indications that the respective central banks will keep rates on hold for years rather than months, there isn't much scope for interest rate differentials to widen significantly and support a much higher level for USD/JPY. The other recent relevant announcement for USD/JPY, was confirmation of so called 'stealth' intervention by MoF in early November after the significant intervention in spot on October 31. Ongoing fears of intervention may well also influence USD/JPY in the near term and the likelihood of a large Japanese trade deficit in January will keep potential Japanese policy measures on the radar screen.

Относительно платежного баланса

From a purely FX perspective, the US TIC data were a key piece of information last week. Foreign investors - both private and official - were net sellers of US assets in December. On the other had, US investors repatriated record amounts of foreign assets in December. Summing these flows up indicates still small inflows into the US, which leaves the US external balance negative for the Dollar.

JPM Hikes Crude Price Forecast, Sees $120 WTI By Election Time

JPM Morgan повышает прогноз по нефти, видит нефть WTI к моменту выборов на $120

Guest Post: Consequences To Expect If The U.S. Invades Iran

Последствия, которые ожидают Америку, если она вторгнется в Иран

Beyond Greece: The Three Scenarios

На расстоянии от Греции: 3 сценария

Bob Janjuah: "Markets Are So Rigged By Policy Makers That I Have No Meaningful Insights To Offer"

Bob Janjuah: рынки настолько подвержены манипуляциям со стороны монетарных властей, что у меня нет четкого понимания, что же там происходит

Важно:

In the near term, LTRO2 at month-end is the next clear focus for markets, more so than Greece. If LTRO2 is USD1trn or more, the market will take that as a signal to load on more leverage, more risk and more ‘carry’. If LTRO2 is in the order of USD250bn to USD500bn, Risk Off will be the order of the day as markets will start to fear that central bankers are having to reign back-in their current policies, and that as a result we face another period where central bankers and policymakers fall back behind the curve. LTRO1 clearly took policymakers from behind to ahead of the curve, but this is an extremely fluid situation, where doing nothing is, in reality, the same as going backwards. As the skew of expectations is to a large LTRO2, a LTRO2 take-up in between these ranges is likely to be viewed with neutrality/mild disappointment.

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