Немецкий еженедельник Spiegel готовит очередную бомбу, способную взорвать ситуацию вокруг Греции. В предрелизе завтрашней статьи он сообщает, что Греции не удалось выполнить ни одной из поставленных бюджетных целей.

Inspectors find that Greece missed all targets - report

Тройка (МВФ, ЕС и ЕЦБ) в настоящий момент имеют команду, которая оценивает, насколько надежными являются долговые обязательства Греции. Миссия проведет очередные встречи на будущей неделе перед завершением доклада (ориентировочно в конце недели ?).

Дефицит публичного бюджета оказался выше ожиданий. Греческое правительство тратит больше, чем согласовано в программе помощи. Поступления от налогов все еще меньше, чем требуется.

МВФ уже заявил о том, что не сможет в будущем месяце выделить свою часть транша (12 млрд. евро) . У нас, европейцев те же самые условия, что и у МВФ, - цитирует Шпигель слова комиссара ЕС Оли Рена. Мы решим вопрос о следующем транше после доклада тройки. Ситуаций очень серьезная, - добавил Рен.

Греческий министр финансов очень быстро ответил на предрелиз в Шпигеле. Он заявил, что сообщения, опубликованные в Шпигеле, не имеют отношения к реальности. Переговоры продолжаются и будут завершены в течение нескольких дней. У нас есть все причины полагать, что доклад будет позитивным для страны, - заявил он греческому Mega TV.

Zero Hedge называет это очередной ложью и приводит комментарии из последней записки голдмановского аналитика:

Eurogroup head Juncker said yesterday that the IMF would probably not be able to make the next disbursement disbursement, as the re-financing of Greece over the next 12 months is not secured (the €26.7 billion Greece was supposed to get from private investors in 2012). By August 20 the Greek government has to redeem €7 billion in debt falling due, though there are of course other payments the Greek government has to make, implying that Euro-zone governments need to come up with a solution fast.

There are two issues Euro-zone governments have to deal with. First, whether (and how) to bridge the funding hole that will open up over the next couple of months if the IMF does not disburse its tranche. Second, what to do about 2012, ie, should there be a second package and under what conditions?

There are in principle several options available for how to replace the IMF money for the next tranche if governments were to deem the risk for the financial system of any early debt restructuring too big – the ECB has been vocal over the last couple of weeks with respect to these risks. Stepping up the current bilateral loans would be one option, though politically difficult as this would need to be approved by parliaments, at least in some cases. Also, several countries will find it rather unattractive to fund these loans right now in the market. Tapping either the EFSF or the EFSM to replace the missing IMF money would be easier, as – with the exception of Finland – parliaments would not need to be asked. One open question, however, is whether an end of IMF money flows, even temporarily, means that access to EFSF money also needs to be declined, as the EFSF should only provide money together with the IMF.

Whichever option is chosen, this will create some noise in several countries and the official explanation for why the IMF is no longer funding will be crucial in that respect. If it is indeed only the question of guaranteed funding over the next twelve months, Euro-zone governments may argue that the IMF will return once an agreement has been found over the second package. However, if the troika’s assessment states that debt sustainability is not given and/or the slippage in terms of implementing the reforms has been too big, it will be difficult even to come up with bridge financing for the next months.

With respect to the second package, a necessary, though not sufficient, condition, seems to be that the troika will still conclude that Greece can “make it” in principle and the slippage has not been too big – and that the Greek government will intensify its efforts. The question in that case, however, is still what the second package should look like, i.e. to what extent should the private sector participate? It is noteworthy in that respect that the German finance minister has backpedalled from his earlier calls for a soft-restructuring in conjunction with a second program for Greece, stressing the risks associated with this, though he also said that once the ESM is in place, private sector participation will be necessary.

It is difficult to say at this stage how important it will be to have the participation of the private sector in order to overcome public resistance in some creditor countries to another aid package. In any case, without more credible efforts from the Greek government to reform/privatise, this hurdle could be too high to overcome, and there might be not a second package.

The first task at hand for Euro-zone governments is to find a replacement for the IMF money if the IMF does decide it is not in a position to disburse the next tranche.

Otherwise, we may get a Greek debt restructuring much faster than previously thought.

От Греции требуют еще больших усилий по балансированию своего бюджета. Возможно второго пакета помощи не будет...

Первая задача, которую необходимо решить правительствам еврозоны - найти замену траншу МВФ.

Так или иначе, мы приходим к выводу, что реструктуризация греческого долга может произойти гораздо быстрее, чем это предполагалось прежде, - делает вывод аналитик GS Дирк Шумахер.