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LINKS-ДАЙДЖЕСТ 27 марта 2012 г. Выход одной страны из еврозоны означает ее развал Списание долга Греции не коснется Goldman Sachs Испанские банки захлестнула волна слияний Инфляция в Великобритании будет низкой ЦБ Австралии обеспокоен укреплением валюты Евробонды разместят с премией 2,35-2,65% к UST Сиракава: осторожней с выкупом облигаций ОЭСР требует триллион Дэйл: британской экономике необходима ребалансировка Deutsche Bank стал крупнейшем банком в Европе .................................................................................... теперь англоязычные The 7 Most Important Things We Learned From Bernanke's Interview With Diane Sawyer Об интервью Бена Бернанке с Дианой Сойер А это само интервью: Bernanke: 'Too Early to Declare Victory' on Economy CITI: We Can All Look Forward To Another Debt Ceiling Battle In Early 2013 Сити ждет следующей схватки относительно потолка госдолга США в начале 2013 года. Zero Hedge ждет, что это наступит гораздо раньше – в сентябре. Всего до достижения потолка осталось около 700 млрд. долларов. WILLEM BUITER: War With Iran Could Bring Four Shocks Что думает экономист о войне с Ираном ........................................................................................... SkyNet Wars: How A Nasdaq Algo Destroyed BATS О странном происшествии, которое произошло с акциями BATS. Цены на них на несколько десятков миллисекунд упали до 0. we relied on our friends from Nanex, who have time and again proven to have a far better grasp of what it is that really happens in the market than virtually anyone else. And if Nanex' interpretation of events is correct (spoiler alert - it was not a "software glitch") it takes SkyNet wars from the silver screen and to a trading terminal near you. What happened is that a malicious, 100% intentional Nasdaq algorithm purposefully brought BATS stock to a price of 0.00 within 900 millisecond of the company's break for trading! This is open SkyNet warfare. Nanex' вердикт: It had to be someone who's machines are directly connected to Nasdaq because they used Intermarket Sweep Order orders. Zero Hedge считает, что это козни конкурентов The Unstoppable US Equity Rally In Perspective The current rally is running long; equities are due for a 3-5% pull-back' is how Deutsche Bank begins to give some context to the scale of the performance of stocks over the last four months. Whether it be liquidity-fueled optimism, optically-pleasing macro data, crisis-fatigue, or just good old-fashioned back-up-the-truck-we're-all-in buying since the last 10% correction in November, the S&P 500 has rallied 22% - essentially unimpeded for 80 days without a drawdown. In between 5% selloffs, the median rise in the S&P 500 is 10% and the duration is 56 days so this current rally is indeed getting long in the tooth (with a 2.5% retracement the best the bears have managed in 2012). To get a better sense of how equities may perform after such a big rally, Deutsche identifies 8 similar cases to the current one when a 10%+ drawdown was followed by a 15%+ recovery: Jul-50, May-70, Dec-74, Aug-98, Sep-01, Oct-02, Feb-03 and Mar-09. At the same point in the rally (i.e. after 3mo), the market continued to grind higher the next 3 months by 4% on average. So a move of this size and velocity (and smoothness) has only occurred 7 times in the history of the S&P 500 and a quick glance at some of those dates marks some notable periods in US economics (and global geopolitics). Deutsche Bank проводит историческое исследование предыдущих ралли на фондовых рынках This Is The World's Balance Sheet Это мировой баланс It is rather surprising that in a world in which anything and everything is only about money, it is next to impossible to find a consolidated balance sheet of the world's insolvent economies (i.e., the developed countries: US, Japan and the Euro Area). So for all those seeking a visual presentation of all the liabilities that have to be inflated away by the central banks (because that's what this is all about), rejoice: the broke world is presented below in its glory. The irony is that the problem would be quite fixable if it weren't for one minor issue: the bulk of the world's assets also happen to be its liabilities! At the end of the day, this may prove to be the fatal flaw in the chairman's attempt to dilute the global liabilities, he will be doing the same with the assets. We will follow up with an analysis of what this actually means shortly (those who have been reading in the past year can come to their own conclusions), but more importantly we well next show how the global "household" sector is invested across these three distinct economies by assorted asset class. Prepare to be rather surprised as various conventionally accepted notions are thoroughly debunked...\ Большая часть мировых активов является чей-то задолженностью и это может оказаться очень неприятным для мировой системы, поскольку обесценивая обязательства, они то же самое сделают и с активами. It's Official - The Fed Is Now Buying European Government Bonds Глава ФРБ Нью-Йорка признался, что ФРС покупает европейский суверенный долг Germany: The Final Frontier... Whose True Debt/GDP Is Now 140% Here we find not the usual issues with the periphery nations but obligations and guarantees for the entire European construct. The analysis of Germany, past their stated GDP and their stated debt to GDP ratio is really a study of the EU/ECB themselves to determine the size and the liabilities that are born by their largest economic member so that we can fully assess the financial condition of Germany and not blindly accept what is officially put out in the Press. Официальные5 и реальные показатели долга к ВВП Германии сильно отличаются Germany German Gross Domestic Product (GDP): $3.2 trillion Official German Sovereign Debt: $2.618 trillion Percentage of Liabilities at the European Union: 27% Percentage of Liabilities at the ECB 18.94% Germany’s Percentage of the ECB Debt ($4 trillion) $757.6 billion German annual cost for the EU budget $46.36 billion German Guarantees for the Stabilization Funds $280.6 billion German Guarantees for the Macro Financial Assistance Fund $211.14 billion German Target-2 Liabilities $656 billion German Guarantee for the EIB Debt $157.29 billion Sovereign Guarantee for KFW $588 billion Total German Sovereign Debt & Guarantees $5.315 trillion Official debt to GDP Ratio 81.8% Actual German Debt to GDP Ratio 139.8% Bill Gross: "The Game As We All Have Known It Appears To Be Over" комментарий ZH First it was Bob Janjuah throwing in the towel in the face of central planning, now we get the same sense from Bill Gross who in his latest letter once again laments the forced transfer of risk from the private to the public sector: "The game as we all have known it appears to be over... moving for the moment from private to public balance sheets, but even there facing investor and political limits. Actually global financial markets are only selectively delevering. What delevering there is, is most visible with household balance sheets in the U.S. and Euroland peripheral sovereigns like Greece." Gross' long-term view is well-known - inflation is coming: "The total amount of debt however is daunting and continued credit expansion will produce accelerating global inflation and slower growth in PIMCO’s most likely outcome. ........................................................................................... JPY - Pressure to Build on Yen with Current Fiscal and Monetary Policies Бюджетная ситуация в Японии весьма-весьма уязвима. From Marketwatch: “The government budgeted ¥44 trillion in net additional borrowing in the next fiscal year, nearly half of its expenditures. It needs to double its tax revenue to balance the budget. But, as the economy is deflating with declining private consumption, a major tax increase would cause the economy to go down more, shrinking the tax base and requiring even bigger tax increases to balance the budget.” From Marketwatch: “Even though the yield on 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) is only 1%, the interest expense is expected to top ¥22.3 trillion in the fiscal year that begins next month. This is one-quarter of the general account budget. If the bond yield rises to 2%, the interest expense would surpass the total expected tax revenue of ¥42.3 trillion.” The total amount of the central bank's planned government debt purchase through the end of this year jumped to nearly ¥38 trillion ($465 billion), an amount roughly equal to all the new bond issuance planned by the Japanese government for the period. This is the first time since the program began in October 2010 that central-bank-asset purchases came anywhere near the amount of government new issuance. From the program's inception in October 2010 through the February meeting, the BOJ bought ¥4 trillion in JGBs through that facility. Gov. Shirakawa said the central bank will purchase ¥15 trillion more through the end of this year.” FX Times ставит на падение йены One of the few ways out for the Japanese economy, its government and the central bank is for the JPY to continue its depreciation. It seems that the BOJ will be playing from the Fed's and BOE's playbook at this point - buy up bonds from a government that is spending at an unsustainable level, and through QE try and weaken the currency to help exporters and restore competitiveness for the economy. That means that the BOJ gets more aggressive in expanding its balance sheet as a percentage of GDP, and with that increase, further downward pressure on the JPY. Therefore, the theme of a weaker Yen may be here to stay, and we should look for opportunities to play pullback on JPY crosses, and to build some longer term positions short the JPY. More Bad News For Spain It's a big week for Spain. Prime Minister Rajoy has to deliver the 2012 Budget on Friday and is also facing his first national strike as Prime Minister on Thursday. Added to that Rajoy failed to gain a majority in elections in Andalucía, Spain's largest autonomous region. This was always going to be a hard sell as Andalucía is traditionally a Socialist strong hold and has an unemployment rate above 30%. Fed And RBA Equally Cryptic
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